Product-group dynamics: who wins, who depends
Pharmaceuticals: scale and trust as export currency
European pharma’s export leadership is a function of regulatory credibility, scale GMP facilities, IP portfolios and deep supply networks. The US is the standout destination, but Switzerland, China, the UK and Japan also feature prominently. The import side is not a weakness; it is a network effect—specialty APIs, clinical-stage inputs and transatlantic contract manufacturing create two-way trade that ultimately fortifies the ecosystem.
What to watch: regulatory convergence (e.g., on advanced therapies), resilient cold-chain logistics, and incentives for on-shoring critical inputs without undermining the advantages of scale and specialisation.
Aerospace: value concentration and long orderbooks
Aerospace exports anchor the EU’s industrial might. The category binds Avionics, airframes, engines and MRO into a long-cycle orderbook less sensitive to month-to-month volatility. The US and UK are major destinations, with growing demand in the Middle East and Asia for fleet renewal and traffic growth. Supply constraints (materials, skilled labour, certification slots) are the nearer-term bottlenecks.
What to watch: production-rate ramp-ups, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) mandates, and a maturing maintenance ecosystem that localises value capture in export markets.
Scientific and medical instruments: niche, sticky, expanding
From diagnostic imaging to laboratory equipment and precision sensors, the EU thrives in high-mix, high-precision niches. The category benefits from research-hospital ecosystems and a large installed base. Exports are distributed across the US, China, Japan and the UK. Inbound flows include US-made instruments and specialised components from Asia.
What to watch: expanding hospital capital budgets, growth in point-of-care diagnostics, and cybersecurity/regulatory demands for networked medical equipment.
Electronics, telecoms and computers: the deficit that drives policy
Electronics and computers dominate imports, with China, Taiwan and Vietnam leading for finished goods and critical sub-assemblies. The EU’s response—the European Chips Act, industrial alliances for batteries/power electronics, and targeted State aid—reflects strategic urgency more than short-term fix. The business imperative is to build dual- and multi-sourcing while monitoring export controls and foreign subsidies rules that shape supplier choices and compliance workload.
What to watch: European fab construction timelines, packaging and test capabilities, and the evolving rulebook for high-end chipmaking equipment and AI-class GPUs.